BIRMINGHAM, Ala. —
Ian is now a Tropical Storm in the Caribbean Sea and is forecast to become a strong hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week. Barring any major track shifts, most if not all of the impacts from the storm will stay to the south and east of Alabama. Get the latest update on the tropics in the video above.
Here's the latest NWS National Hurricane Center forecast discussion:
By early Sunday, Ian is expected to reach the western portion of the ridge, and the storm should turn west-northwestward, and then northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean in 36 to 48 hours. After that time, Ian is forecast to turn north-northwestward and northward around the western portion of the ridge. This will bring Ian near or over Western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Late in the period, the guidance indicates the storm will begin to recurve toward Florida.
As mentioned before, the track models are in general agreement with this scenario, however, there is a large amount of cross-track spread at 72 hours and beyond. In fact, the east-west spread in the guidance at 96 hours is about 180 n mi, with the CTCI and ECMWF along the eastern side of the envelope, and the GFS, HWRF, and GFS ensemble mean along the western side. The overall guidance envelope has shifted slightly westward this cycle, and the NHC track has been nudged in that direction and lies just east of the various consensus aids. Given the spread in the guidance and the still shifting dynamical models, additional adjustments to the track forecast may be needed in subsequent advisories.
The shear that has been plaguing Ian is forecast to continue to decrease over the next day or two while the cyclone moves over the warm waters of the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea. This should allow for strengthening, with steady to rapid intensification (RI) quite possible once an inner core becomes established. Although the updated NHC forecast is just shy of forecasting RI (30 kt or greater increase over 24 h) during any 24-h period over the next few days, it calls for a 45-kt increase in wind speed between 24 and 72 hours, and Since Ian is not expected to remain over Cuba long, little weakening is expected due to that land interaction, and the forecast again shows Ian as a major hurricane over the eastern Gulf when it is approaching the west coast of Florida.
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IAN KEY MESSAGES
- Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall and instances of flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba.
- Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by early Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Jamaica on Sunday.
- Early next week, Ian is forecast to move near or over western Cuba as a strengthening hurricane and then approach the Florida peninsula at or near major hurricane strength, with the potential for significant impacts from storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall. While it is too soon to determine the exact magnitude and location of these impacts, residents in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and closely monitor forecast updates through the weekend.
